Welcome to week 2 of Derek vs. the spread and I can’t help but pat myself on the back after going 3-1 in both my spread picks and straight up winners. The only team that cost me was the Seahawks and the 12th man. New Orleans secondary could not get it done but I am sure there are a few Saints fan thought that Drew Brees being on the cover of Madden hurt them. The one trend that looked good last week three road teams winning. While it is hard to see that happening again, I can see it happening again, so let’s get right to it.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Ravens-When we watched the Ravens beat up on the Chiefs last week, it was really the only game that people knew how it was going to end up. It won’t be any different this week but this game will be a lot of closer between these division rivals. Baltimore will depend on their defense to get them through this one and they will need to get more help from their secondary. Baltimore should be able to stop Steelers running back Rashad Mendenhalll and keep them going to the air. While the Ravens were able to stop Matt Cassel last week it will be hard to stop Big Ben. The Ravens secondary was ranked 21st this season but they did not have Ed Reed for the first six game. Reed and the rest of the secondary will have to have a big game and stop deep threat Mike Wallace if they want to go to the championship game. It will be hard because we know Reed will miss practice on the fact that his brother is missing so the fact Reed will play, you have to give him props. While the secondary is the key for the win so will the passing game. Joe Flacco may not be the best qb in the league but he is reliable and does not turn the ball over that much. If he and Anquan Boldin and Todd Heap have a big day, they could get it down.
Steelers-When it comes to the Steelers, they usually have the upper hand when it comes to beating the Ravens. The Ravens did beat them in week 3 you can argue that QB Ben Roethlisberger was still serving his four game suspension and if Jeff Reed didn’t miss that field goal in the second half that the Steelers could have won that game. With the boys from steel town they have the upper head during the game on each end of the gridiron. The Steelers have the second best defense during the regular season and were the best on the run. Guys like James Harrison and James Farrior were able to stop the Ravens both times this season holding them under 100 yards. While we talk about the front seven we can’t forget about Tory Palamalou who is really the heart and soul of this team. While most people will say Big Ben, they still went 3-1 without him this year and the Steelers went 9-7 last year where Polamalu missed most of the season due to a nagging leg injury, The only part with the Steelers that I do have to question is the offensive line, They have been good this year but they have had three starters go out for the season. Veterans like 17 year nab Flozell Adams will have to be a big help and prevent guys like Terreal Suggs and Ray Lewis from getting to the quarterback. The offense will be fine with threats like Heath Miller, Hines Ward and Mike Wallace.
Outcome-This game is the hardest to pick between the two because the last four games they have played each other have all been decided by a field goal. I think the winner will be on what future secondary hall of famer will have the better game between Reed and Polamalu. I think Mr. Head and Shoulders and his thicker looking hair will get the win but it will be another close game but the Ravens will just get enough to cover the three point spread.

Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Green Bay-While most weeks this season I was watching the greatest invention known to man as NFL Red zone, the rare week I didn’t see it on week 12 which gave me a great game between Green Bay and Atlanta were the Falcons won 20-17 . While the easy thing to do would to pick the Falcons again, the stats would say otherwise. In that game that Packers pretty much won every battle and it is the one that has been setting them back all season and that is team rushing. The top rusher that day was quarterback Aaron Rodgers who got 56 yards. If they can get somewhat of the same effort that James Starks gave them against the Eagles last week then the Packers should be able to go in and upset the best team in the NFC. The Packers played a very good game last week and were able to stop the Eagles and were able to stop Michael Vick on the run attack. Vick was still able to throw for 292 yards and with DeSean Jackson being banged up and David Akers missed two field goals which would have gotten the Eagles the game. The offense for the part was still good and Aaron Rodgers and his vast targets taking the Philadelphia to school. If the Packers want to head to Chicago or Seattle next week then there secondary will have to play like they have all season expect the last game they played and they will be one step closer to getting to Dallas.
Atlanta-When you look at the stats closely, Atlanta final rankings for offense and defense were at 16th. While they are both respectable spots, you wonder how this team went 13-3 in the season. There are plenty of reason this team has success, the main one is that they don’t do stupid things with the ball. Head Coach John Smith has put the right pieces together and has a winning product. On offense we see that Matt Ryan is on the verge of being an elite quarterback in the league and if he can win his first playoff game Saturday he can go in the conversation with Manning, Brees and Brady. They got Michael Turner and Jason Snelling running the ball and they got one of the league’s best receivers in Roddy White and the best tight end of all time in Tony Gonzalez. On the defensive side, while they don’t have a big name star on that side, they do manage to get the job done. There pass defense is ranked 15th in the past with an underrated player like Frank Grimes. On the front end they were 12th best against the rush with veteran John Abraham anchoring up the middle. I also got to think that with Gonzalez playing in his 12th season that the team will want to rally around to get him a super bowl ring. As long as the Falcons do not turn the ball over they should be able to get enough offense to make the Packers worried and put them in a panic.
Outcome-Liked I said last week that you got to dance with the one that brought you and I will stick by that and get the Packers to cover the spread and win outright. While Atlanta has been one of the best teams this year, I think that the Packers rushing attack will be better than last time they played and that will be the difference maker.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears (-10)
Seattle-What to say about the Seattle Seahawks, while myself and plenty of others people thought they had no chance last week against the Saints. The one of the things I said that could make a difference and it helped was the crowd, otherwise known as the 12th man. The fans is Seattle were so loud during Marshawn Lynch’s 64 td run with the best stiff arm of all time that it registered on the rector scale. Lynch and the rest of the offense were able to hang loose and played their best game of the year and Matt Hasselbeck played like he did five years ago. The defense was still another story. While they may have won the game, the defense did still not look that good. Drew Brees was still able to throw over 300 yards passing but the Seahawks were able to stop the run but that was against the Saints fourth running back on the depth chart. The big plus is the that the Seahawks did beat the Bears week 9 at home 23-20 so they have the confidence and if they play loose I think Seattle can get a win again.
Chicago-Now while I may have shown disrespect to the Seahawks last week, it will be nowhere the disrespect that I will show to the Bears this week. The only reason this team even got a first round bye was because they have the best front seven in the league headed by Lance Briggs and Brain Urlacher and the best kick-off man of all time in Devin Hester. While they have these pieces, everything else is overhyped. There secondary was ranked 20th which is ok but it does cost the Bears some games at times. Their offense was even worse being ranked 22nd on the run, 28th on the pass which got them ranked 30th overall and there offensive line is one of the weakness in the league. Finally we cannot forget about the reincarnation of Jeff George in Jay Cutler. While he has one of the best arms in the league, he makes stupid decisions and throws too many picks. While you can say he doesn’t have the pieces with the Bears, he had guys like Brandon Marshall in Denver and still had problems. It is like the episode of South Park where Stan and Kyle said that you suck but my dad said you could be good someday. Everyone is waiting for that moment but I think this is the best we will see him. Cutler can get nervous at times and this being his first playoff game, I can only imagine what he will be like on Sunday. If the Bears want to win this game, there front seven need to get to Hasselback and let Elliot Gould kick a few field goals to seal the deal
Outcome-While a lot of people will be looking to ride high with Seattle to beat the spread, I will be doing the same and I think they will win outright and go to the NFC championship.
　

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots (-8.5)
Patriots-For anyone who does know me, I am a Patriots fan. While everyone is pretty much ready to hand the Lombardi trophy to them, they can be beaten and you have to look at their defense. The Pats were ranked 25th in yards per game and were 30th in the secondary only ahead of the Eagles and the Texans which meant that linebacker Jared Mayo had to play back a lot to prevent yards after the catch. The only bright spot in the back end of the field is rookie Devin McCourty who was able to get 7 interceptions have him in talks for defensive rookie of the year. It will be hard for McCourty to handle the pressure for the secondary in his first playoff game; thank god he is only facing Mark Sanchez. While the pass defense was bad the run was still good which ranked 11th. It is hard to consider because of the team’s best players in defensive end Ty Warren has been out for the season. Vince Wilfork has been carrying more of the load and has stepped up to the challenge. The only thing I can hope is that when Wolfork is a free agent in the offseason that they will reward the league’s best nose tackle for this. With the offense, all I got to say is Tom Brady. He has had one of his best seasons and he only threw 4 picks and the offense as a whole only turned the ball over 10 times. The receivers and running have been good and we got two stars in the making at tight end with Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. The unsung hero of the offense this year has been veteran tight end in Agle Crumpler. While only catching the ball six times this year, he has been helping the two young guys and has been on the field most of the time being an extra blocker on the offensive line. The Patriots will have no problem on the offensive side with the front five they have.
Jets-Say what you will about Rex Ryan and his talking but he has been getting the job done. In just two years, Ryan has already got the most postseason wins for the Jets and is the only coach in team history to have win in the playoffs in back to back seasons. He has also done this without playing a game at home in the meadowlands. Ryan has done a good job with this team and the defense and special teams and we did see that last weekend in the win against the Colts. Besides that one drive the Colts made late in the fourth quarter and defensive back Darrelle Revis held Reggie Wayne to just one yard. While the defense was able to put a stop on things, there running attack did the same. They were able to control the clock and there time of possession in the game was. LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene were able to rush for in the game. The only part of the game that was a problem was Mark Sanchez. He was able to make a big drive to get them into field goal range to win but he looked rusty for the most part missing over half of his passes. He can handle the pressure thou because with the three wins has won more games than any Jets QB. He has been having shoulder troubles the last few weeks so that could be the issue, well that and receiver Santino Holmes missing too many catches. He still does have Braylon Edwards who has gotten rid of his past of being a butterfingers. One of my closet friends Jon McDonald did point out that Edwards has only dropped two balls this year. I think if Sanchez can get the ball to him then there will be plenty of pissed off Patriots fans like myself and plenty of other people who will lose money picking the Patriots at the start of the playoffs.
Outcome-While that +8.5 is pretty temping to take with the Jets, it just won’t happen. Tom Brady has been too automatic this season and in the playoffs where he is 15-4 lifetime. Don’t forget with Brady that he has won 26 of his last 27 games in Foxboro. While the Jets will play a better game than that 45-3 spanking they got in week 13 it won’t be enough to get to a second straight AFC championship.