Hurricane Lee: Tropical cyclone info statement (Posted 3:48pm Sep 12 2023)

Environment Canada release:

3:48 PM ADT Tuesday 12 September 2023
The next information statement will be issued by 9 AM ADT Wednesday.

Hurricane Lee will start moving on a more northward heading tomorrow and further enhance the tropical airmass over Atlantic Canada. It will also have the effect of slowing the progress of a front which could increase the risk of heavy rainfall over the Maritime provinces on Thursday and Friday before the hurricane approaches.

We expect Lee’s circulation to broaden significantly as it moves north and expect it to move into the Canadian marine district as a category-1 hurricane. It is looking likely that the forward motion of the storm could slow and while doing so, winds would start to decrease, the intensity would drop below hurricane strength and it would become post-tropical. The track of the storm centre could range anywhere from Downeast Maine to Cape Breton. Also note that after the likely slow-down in forward motion, Lee’s trajectory is expected to shift from northerly to northeasterly. Since it will be a rather broad system, the rain, wind, waves, etc would affect most of the Maritime provinces and neighboring waters to varying extent. Lee will be much- weakened before reaching Newfoundland.

The trend in computer model guidance has been a somewhat faster approach speed and arrival time in the region. NOTE: If the trend continues, there would be a risk of higher winds reaching land. As of now, western Nova Scotia has the higher possibility of impacts which is worth noting since that region wasn’t impacted by recent storms like Dorian and Fiona. It will be important to follow updates of this bulletin where we will articulate any shifts in the impact likelihood and of course the eventual details of impacts.

With the expanding size of the hurricane and a long trajectory northward, building surf conditions and rip currents are expected along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia over the coming days – particularly on Friday.

This next bulletin is planned for 9 a.m. ADT Wednesday with the CHC track and technical bulletin taking effect at that time as well..

Forecaster: Fogarty

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.

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