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Saturday: Heavy Precipitation Risks And Uncertainties

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As temperatures turn mild today and Friday, wintry precipitation will not be in most people’s minds.  However, Friday night, as rain spreads southwards across the Maritimes. a cold ridge of high pressure over Quebec will spread cold air over parts of the Maritimes.

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Although it is Thursday, there is still big differences in the possible outcomes for Friday night and Saturday.

Snow: Heavy snow over the St. Lawrence Valley may affect only parts of Northern New Brunswick, or a great deal of that region (see pic).  This snow, while likely impacting Montreal, is still uncertain for Toronto (which would impact air travel that goes through Toronto).

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Further south, Freezing Rain is likely… but again the models are still not consistent in the forecast… since only a degree one way of the other… or a slight wind shift, will make the difference between rain, freezing rain, snow or ice pellets.

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Over the southern Maritimes, some areas may get very heavy rain (50-100mm?).  Even this forecast is uncertain.

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So the best advice is to prepare for potentially heavy precipitation Friday night and Saturday.  Heavy rain over the south will make driving tough and could lead to local flooding.  Freezing rain is a hazard to air and road travel, as well as power outages.  Heavy snow and ice pellets also impacts road and air travel.

Environment Canada has had Special Weather Statements… which express the uncertainty.  As


About Jim Abraham

Jim has spent about 40 years in the weather business. He has been an operational forecaster from Halifax to Whitehorse. Jim started the Canadian Hurricane Centre, and has flown into a couple of these storms. As a senior executive within Environment Canada, Jim has managed weather research, weather services, and weather/water/climate observing programs. Retired from Environment Canada, Jim is the Atlantic Director for the Canadian Climate Forum, the president of the Halifax chapter of the Canadian Meteorological & Oceanographic Society, a partner in Climaction Services, and a part-time meteorologist on CBC radio. He is still participating in national and international activities related to weather preparedness. Having witnessed unprecedented advances in the science and technology of meteorology. Jim hopes that this blog will also be educational; enabling users to better understand weather-related phenomena, better interpret available information, and ultimately better able to make decisions to protect themselves, their family and their property. Jim welcomes any questions and suggestions.


The views and opinions expressed in this content are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of haligonia.ca.


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