By: Dylan Matthias
It’s been a little while since I posted, but this forced me back into it: the time is finally upon us. It’s AUS playoff preview-writing week!
Let’s get the actual predicting sorted out early: UPEI will win the women’s championships and Dalhousie will win the men’s.
Read on to see Dylan’s go at predicting scores for each game, too, as well as a full break-down of both tournaments and all the playoff previews associated with them.
Intro:
The week started off with a long, long session of Dal Gazette playoff preview editing on Monday. And over on Haligonia.ca, Bill McLean chimed in with a preview, too–it’s a celebration! Since playoff previews are all about inclusivity, we even edited some AUS Football previews, too. Tuesday, was Different Media Day at Playoff Preview Week, and CKDU did its AUS soccer previews on the Bill McLean Sports Show (which I would link to if I could figure out CKDU’s archives, but I can’t). Today, well, this playoff preview comes out, and, if I can get it done before midnight, there should be one on the CIS Blog. Thursday is an off-day where Dylan manically tries to pull together all the media for the weekends live-blogs, including (but not limited to) stats, more stats, video, polls, backgrounders, some more stats, photos, and stats. Friday, the Gazette comes out, which you can read online, too, capping off what we all hope will be a very sucessful Playoff Preview Week.
Oh, and there are two AUS soccer championships this weekend, too.
Because Dal Soccer Live/Haligonia.ca is live-blogging the women’s championships (and we want the info to be high up so we don’t have to scroll through the whole article to find out how bad our predictions were), the women are first. If you’re interested in following the live-blog, it should start around 2:30pm on Friday with some pre-game chit-chat, which will be much enhanced if there are comments on the blog. All the games will be live-blogged, assuming the internet holds out.
Acadia University, Wolfville, Nova Scotia: AUS Women’s Soccer Championships:
Everything, of course, changed on the last weekend of the season.
Mainly, Dal lost to Memorial. Moncton also lost to Cape Breton, which is less surprising, but still a result that eliminated the Aigles-Bleues.
It should never have happened. MUN were winless for a reason. According to match stats (which is all we’re going to get), Dal had 28 attempts on goal, and 15 of them on target. 10 corner kicks. Dal dominated and didn’t finish, obviously.
The points dropped cost the Tigers first place to UPEI. This could cost Dal, as it means Cape Breton will likely meet them in the semi-finals. It’s a fixture Dal won at Wickwire this year–quite comfortably, 2 – 0. But the Capers are still an experienced, capable squad and could easily send the Tigers home early again.
UPEI will meet whichever one of St. FX and Saint Mary’s comes out of the fourth-fifth quarter-final. That should be a far easier game for the Panthers, although they’ve dropped four of six points against SMU and X this year. Still, it won’t be easy for the quarter-final winner to play talented UPEI less than 24 hours after what will be a very difficult game for both.
Here’s a more detailed break-down of each game:
(5)Saint Mary’s Huskies v. (4)St. FX X-Women (3:00pm, Friday): This will be a tough, tough battle for both teams. They’re evenly matched and they typically play well against each other. SMU have had a mixed season, but have picked up the easy points efficiently and find themselves in the playoffs. Kelly Burgess has been on fire this season, scoring seven and tying her for second in goals scored. She’ll be a handful for a young St. FX back line. Nicole Melong, the only fifth-year on the team, will be responsible for most of the defending, but she’s looked shaky when we’ve seen her this year. Scoring is a massive problem for St. FX. Olivia Zanette has four, which is isn’t bad, but her form changes every time the wind blows and Wolfville can be a breezy place with lots of wind off the Minas Basin. Prediction: SMU 1 – 1 St. FX, 4 – 3 on penalties.
(H)Acadia Axewomen v. (3)Cape Breton Capers (6:00pm, Friday): Acadia’s goal in this game will be to avoid getting played off their own park. This is Acadia’s first playoff appearance in a very, very long time. They won’t win the banner. They won’t beat CBU unless the Capers collapse entirely. Amit Batra is turning this program around, and some playoff experience will go a long way towards helping his young team grow. There is some talent on this Axewomen team–Michelle Davey can threaten, Becca Stunz is useful on the wing, Catherine Bleakney looked good a couple of weeks ago and rookie Charlotte Nutt is promising. Playoff experience will help her, especially. It’s the last hurrah for long-standing holding midfielder Lauren O’Connor, who will get to play her final game in front of home fans. Cape Breton did implode in last year’s semi-finals to UPEI, so there is some precedent for an upset. But it still won’t happen. Prediction: Acadia 1 – 4 Cape Breton.
(QF1)Saint Mary’s Huskies v. (1)UPEI Panthers (2:00pm, Saturday): It could also be St. FX in this game, of course. Either way, UPEI should win this. There’s some ground to say that, because the Panthers are hosting nationals, they might take it easy. That’s unlikely, given they lost the banner last year in extra-time. This team will want a title. They were underestimated a bit coming into this season and a win would prove to the league and the country that they are a new contender (although a strong performance at nationals would do a better job of this). Upsets are always possible in the playoffs–if SMU get hot things could be interesting here–but UPEI are loaded up front with Tessa Roche and Ali Goodman, solid in the back, and have a likely-to-be-an-all-star keeper in Chanelle Roy. Tough to see them losing, even if they were held by SMU already this year. Prediction: SMU 0 – 2 UPEI.
(QF2)Cape Breton Capers v. (2)Dalhousie Tigers (5:00pm, Saturday): It pains me to predict this. It really does. But Dal Soccer Live has to be bold sometimes: Dal will lose this game. It’ll hurt. There may be tears. It may be highly controversial or highly unlucky. But Dal are primed to lose in the semi-final. It may well be that the loss to Memorial awakened them and reminded them that losing can happen easily. And they may respond. But they lost to Memorial. That does not exactly indicate flying form coming into the playoffs. Sure, the Tigers have played good soccer throughout the year, but so can the Capers. It’ll be ugly, it’ll be skilled, it’ll be ferocious. Erika Lannon will probably score the winner. But somehow, this one just smells like a Capers win. Prediction: Cape Breton 2 – 1 Dalhousie.
(SF1)UPEI Panthers v. (SF2)Cape Breton Capers (3:00pm, Sunday): This fixture could be any other combination of teams, of course, if we’re wrong in our predictions. But if we take it that UPEI and CBU will meet, it should be a fairly epic battle. Both are talented teams, even if the Capers have had a bit of an off year. There’s offensive talent and defensive talent. Both teams are going to nationals at this point anyway, since UPEI in the finals means the runner-up qualifies. If Jessica Furtado stops doing fancy stepovers long enough to take a shot, she could score a critical goal in this one. Prediction: UPEI 2 – 3 Cape Breton, AET.
Universite de Moncton, Moncton, New Brunswick, AUS Men’s Soccer Championships:
Figuring this AUS men’s conference out is a bit tricky.
First, you’ve got Dal, who should have been good, but haven’t been. Sure, sure, third is a solid finish and it might even help them going into the playoffs. But the Tigers should have finished higher this year. Why they didn’t is another post.
St. FX are ranked #1, but haven’t played a game against CIS opposition in years. How exactly a #1 ranking is deserved based on easy wins against Acadia is something only CIS can say. They’re good, but not that good.
UPEI, who were last year’s runners-up, finished eighth with a 4-8-1 record. Jimmie Mayaleh had far less occasion to take off his shirt and get sent off this year–two goals on 28 shots. Ouch.
Then Cape Breton, who were most people’s choice to repeat as champions, managed to add talent and worsen their team. No one’s quite sure what happened to the Capers, but chemistry seems to be a refrain.
Acadia were nicely predictable this year, though, finishing 2-11-0.
All of this makes predicting the playoffs extremely difficult. And that’s why Dal have an easier road thanks to finishing in third.
The Tigers will run into Moncton in the quarters. That’s a tough match-up, but not an insurmountable one for a Tigers team that does have some momentum coming into the playoffs. More importantly, it allows them to avoid Cape Breton in the first round, who despite barely making the playoffs are perfectly capable of doing damage in high-pressure situations.
Finishing third also guarantees that Dal will avoid St. FX in the semi-final, which also has to be a good thing. The Tigers did lose 6-1 to SMU (the other semi-finalists) but beat the Huskies two weeks later at Wickwire easily enough, 2-0.
It won’t be a huge surprise if X make the final–they are pretty good–but it also won’t be a huge surprise if they completely self-destruct in the semi, more or less according to the Dal Tigers 2009 template. Teams that should win easily often don’t. Factor in massive discipline problems and a Capers v. X-Men game could go anywhere.
Only one AUS team makes nationals this year due to quirky CIS berth-assigning (although OUA will have three teams in Toronto–just saying). So the winner takes it all. St. FX seem a likely pick, but it would be fun to see them lose, and it would be nice for CIS to have to have seven straight top-three St. FX rankings up on their website all winter.
And here’s how it’ll all play out (maybe):
(5)UNB Varsity Reds v. (4)Cape Breton Capers (Friday, 12:00pm): Cape Breton are coming in with two wins against non-playoff teams. UNB have two goals in their last four games–although to be fair two of those games were 1-0 wins. It’s hard to pick against the Capers here because they have a swath of talent and UNB just, quite simply, don’t. The Reds struggle mightily to score consistently and rely on tough, defence-first play. Against a Capers team that–theoretically–can keep the ball on the ground and attack up the middle, they’ll be outmatched. The Capers have UNB beat in just about every position. If Cape Breton show up to play–and that could be quite a big if–they’ll win. Prediction: UNB 0 – 3 Cape Breton.
(H)UdeM Aigles Bleus v. (3)Dalhousie Tigers (Friday, 3:00pm): Despite the much-discussed fan advantage, Dal will very likely win this. Yes, Moncton fans will be loud. They always are, and good on them for it. But the effect is limited. Fans can’t account for talent. What could affect this game is Dal’s weekend in St. John’s. Tyler Lewars scored on Saturday against Memorial, his first AUS goal. And maybe it would have started a streak if only he hadn’t picked up a fifth yellow in the game, meaning he’s now out of this game. Rumours of team discipline problems abound around the Tigers, on and off the pitch. If the Dal team play the game they can, they should beat Moncton. If they take cards, lose their focus, or get sloppy, the speedy Moncton will punish them. Prediction: Moncton 1 – 2 Dalhousie.
(QF1)Cape Breton Capers v. (1)St. FX X-Men (Saturday, 12:00pm): If Moncton beat Cape Breton they’ll play this game instead, and the Capers/V-Reds will play SMU. If our predictions do come to pass, this should be an epic battle of talented, undisciplined teams. This could be the game of the weekend, easily. Rigby, Ian Greedy and Shayne Hollis up front fro CBU and Michael Marousek, Jamar Dixon and Kareem Henry for St. FX. Chris Tournidis against Andrew MacDonald in goal. Both teams have strong defence as well. It should be a bit of a culture clash, with Cape Breton preferring a possession game and X preferring to counter attack. Both teams will be able to play to their strengths. This should be a classic. Prediction: Cape Breton 4 – 4 St. FX; 7 – 6 on penalties.
(QF2)Dalhousie Tigers v. (2)Saint Mary’s Huskies (Saturday, 3:00pm): Another potentially excellent game to watch on a Saturday afternoon in…Moncton. Possibly in the rain. When Tiger-recruit-turned-Husky Zach Bauld was sent off at Wickwire field in early October, something changed in the Tigers’ season. The 2 – 0 win was a more authentic Tigers performance than the 6 – 1 drubbing at Husky Stadium. Dal have looked stronger and stronger ever since. Tyler Lewars will be eligible for this game and might now have the confidence to stop missing easy goals and instead score easy goals. Saint Mary’s have great talent and should make this a fine game. But the Huskies’ starters have less playoff experience than Dal’s, and Dal come in with last year’s AUS defeat on their minds. There’s an intangible edge for Dal, and the Tigers will use that to win. Prediction: Saint Mary’s 2 – 3 Dalhousie, AET.
(SF1)Cape Breton Capers v. (SF2)Dalhousie Tigers (Sunday, 2:00pm): Sports have a funny way of making stories happen–that’s why sports journalism is fun. This was the final last year. It was as sure a thing as St. FX making the final this year. So last year’s story resurfaces in 2010. Both teams will have played two games at this point, but both are capable of playing a third. And both are capable of winning. Cape Breton are probably more skilled, but expecting the Capers–who have had a wildly inconsistent season–to get through three games without imploding seems a tall order. There are questions about Dal, too, but with the Tigers it doesn’t seem as if there’s a soothing, computerized voice dictating a countdown clock in the background, as there is with the Capers. The Tigers have looked a bit stronger in each game. There’s every chance of them exorcising their demons after two games. There seems to be less chance of that for the Capers. Prediction: Cape Breton 1 – 2 Dalhousie, AET.
Both tournaments start Friday, where these predictions will likely be proved wrong quite quickly. Debate away in the comments section.
–Dylan Matthias is the incoming sports editor at the Dalhousie Gazette. He runs Dal Soccer Live on the side to provide more in-depth coverage of AUS and ACAA soccer. He has been a Toronto FC fan since Danny Dichio scored the team’s first ever goal. It showed him the magic of soccer.
