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Very Tricky Forecast For Wednesday

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On Tuesday night a new low will develop over the Gulf of Maine and track across the Maritimes.

Normally, a track through the Bay of Fundy would guarantee mostly rain for Nova Scotia.  However, an elongated trough (dashed line on my pic) separates winds from the northeast on the north side and southeast on the south side.

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Given the difficulty in predicting the location of this trough, the timing and amount of snow for the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia will be a challenge.

One weather model has consistently kept the coats in cold air, with lots of snow, especially along the Atlantic Coast:

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The other has a less distinct trough, resulting in a general southeast wind, and a quicker changeover to rain along the Atlantic Coast:

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My advice: everyone should limit their travel plans.  Given the likelihood the snow will be wet, and winds will increase, there may be power outages.

For those wanting to check the European Model for their communities, it is closer to model 2 (mostly rain for Halifax):


I’ll try and tweet updates tomorrow and Wednesday, especially to assist in timing for removal before the mess freezes.

Stay safe


About Jim Abraham

Jim has spent about 40 years in the weather business. He has been an operational forecaster from Halifax to Whitehorse. Jim started the Canadian Hurricane Centre, and has flown into a couple of these storms. As a senior executive within Environment Canada, Jim has managed weather research, weather services, and weather/water/climate observing programs. Retired from Environment Canada, Jim is the Atlantic Director for the Canadian Climate Forum, the president of the Halifax chapter of the Canadian Meteorological & Oceanographic Society, a partner in Climaction Services, and a part-time meteorologist on CBC radio. He is still participating in national and international activities related to weather preparedness. Having witnessed unprecedented advances in the science and technology of meteorology. Jim hopes that this blog will also be educational; enabling users to better understand weather-related phenomena, better interpret available information, and ultimately better able to make decisions to protect themselves, their family and their property. Jim welcomes any questions and suggestions.


The views and opinions expressed in this content are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of haligonia.ca.


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